Santa Claus is not coming early, if at all, for Brian Lenihan if today’s exchequer figures are anything to go by. The November exchequer returns usually provide a very significant bonus for Ministers for Finance. However, today’s figures confirm that tax receipts across a range of headings continue to drop.

The revenue returns for November clearly demonstrate that budgetary policy cannot be based on a strategy of cuts alone. There must be a coherent strategy to create jobs and increase economic activity which will also grow revenues.

Ultimately, the quickest route out of the fiscal crisis is to address the jobs crisis, but Minister Lenihan has effectively ignored the jobs issue. The collapse of 20% in VAT and Excise is part of the broader collapse in consumer confidence and the extraordinary rise in the savings ratio.

Consumers are responding to a Government that has no action plan for jobs, and keeping their hands in their pockets. Even a modest recovery in consumer confidence would have a hugely beneficial effect on revenues from these sources.

The November exchequer figures must give the Minister for Finance pause for thought as he drafts his budget. In particular, swingeing cuts for people on welfare and low incomes will result in less spending and ever lower tax revenues.

Corporation tax returns have held up pretty well, highlighting the fact this tax is more heavily dependant on a relatively small number of multinational companies. By and large, these companies have not been badly affected by Ireland’s banking crisis or collapsing property market.

The exchequer returns also reflect the fact that tax refunds have been very significant this year. In a recent parliamentary reply, the Minister indicated to me that refunds of income and corporation tax had already reached €1.6bn by the end of October.