September may have been the driest since 2002, but the state coffers didn’t receive a similar boost. Tax revenues are back down to 2003/4 levels for the first three quarters of the year, nearly €1bn short of government projections and nearly €5bn less than at the same point last year. Fianna Fáil NAMA proposal will heap tens of billions of euro onto an already rocketing national debt.

The return of emigration and mass unemployment is hitting tax revenues hard. Many two income families are now down to one as job losses hit home. Until we get people back to work, closing the gaping hole in the public finances is going to be next to impossible.

Fianna Fáil’s fiscal policy is self-defeating. The more they slash spending and hike taxes the bigger the deficit gets because they are taking billions out of the economy at a time when demand is already chronically weak.

In the Celtic Tiger years, Finance Ministers could always count on an autumn cash bonanza as businesses and the self-employed paid their annual tax bill. With the economy in decline, earnings down and profits shrinking, there is unlikely to be a significant boost in the run-up to December’s hairshirt budget.

In fact, Minister Lenihan has today formally acknowledged that April’s emergency budget was a failure with tax revenue now expected to come in €2bn below expectations and the General Government Deficit to hit 12%, way ahead of the 10.75% indicated in the budget only 6 months ago.

The exchequer deficit looks set to hit a record high of over €25bn this year. Less than two years ago, the total outstanding debt was less than €38bn, but this looks set to rocket to €140bn or more by 2013. If interest rates rise from their current lows, the debt could go even higher.

On top of this already onerous debt mountain, Fianna Fáil wants to raise €54bn in NAMA-bonds to bail out the banks, which could push the national debt over €200bn in the years to come. Our national debt would be significantly more than total GDP for the first time since the 1980’s.