No Spring Cheer in Leap Year – Worrying Exchequer Figures

“February was another bad month for the exchequer”, Deputy Joan Burton has said. “The February exchequer returns demonstrate in very stark terms the continued weakening in the public finances. The fact that these returns came in over half a billion below profile shows that the economy is facing serious difficulty. February’s figures highlight once again the dramatic deterioration in Ireland’s economic fortunes and the health of the exchequer on Brian Cowen’s watch.”

“This may be a leap year, but the Minister for Finance is asking us all to take a huge leap of faith. He refuses to recognise what the IMF, EU Commission, Irish Central Bank, a host of other financial institutions and even, it seems, an Taoiseach, all recognise – Economic growth will fall below his budget day estimates. This in turn will have a knock-on effect on the exchequer. It’s time for Brian Cowen to wake up and smell the coffee.

“February’s tax returns are somewhat inflated by the extra day for the leap year. When these disappointing tax revenues are combined with Budget increases of 8% and 12% in current and capital spending respectively, the prospects for staying within the Minister’s targeted budget deficit for the year are not good.

”The most notable aspect of these revenue shortfalls is that, for the first time in several months, stamp duty is not solely responsible. The malaise affecting the property market has now spread to the wider economy with corporation tax some €100m below profile, VAT some €200m below profile and Capital Gains Tax a staggering €270m, or 34% below profile.

“New figures today show that redundancies are up 30% for the first two months of 2008. To a large degree, these job losses come as a direct result of Minister Cowen’s mishandling of the property market. Prevarication over stamp duty gave the property market the jitters from which there are no signs of imminent recovery.

“Thousands of workers are being made redundant from the construction and manufacturing sectors. The dole should only be a temporary stop-gap. We need to see pathways put in place for people so that they can acquire the transferable skills that they need to get another job.” If no action is taken, we run the risk of seeing dole queues lengthen.”